Wednesday, October 08, 2008


Gallup Daily: Obama’s Lead Over McCain Expands to 11

That said, let's keep in mind what is true about pre-election polling, according to this piece by Open Left's Chris Bower.

Bower points out that the largest margin for victory in the past 16 national elections has been 8.51% (Clinton in 96), and that these days, a "landslide" is considered between 5-8%.

So, yes, 11% is good news, because, one, it indicates a causative response to last night's debates (which is that, yes, Republicans, Obama won), and, two, it beats the polling margin for error and indicates a true lead among likely voters.

Still, be prepared. The numbers will come down, at least a little. It's almost a certainty.


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