It's been a painful election eve morning for me. Yesterday was my birthday, and I'd planned an all-day outing (more on that amazing experience in the future), so I had my Tivo boyfriend record all the weekend political shows for me. I watched them this morning, so I could delete them and get on with the business of trying to keep my head from exploding.
God, what an agonizing couple of hours.
I almost feel sorry for McCain campaign cronies and other Republican surrogates at this point. According to a "leaked" internal memo, the McCain pollster has somehow managed to gerrymander his polling results to indicate that this election was a (and I quote) "dead heat." Okay, look. John McCain is not out of this. He could conceivably win. Statistically, it's unlikely, but it is no where near impossible. According to Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight.com, Barack Obama has a 96.4% chance of being our President-elect on November 5th. That said, McCain and Palin are on the verge of being charged Pennsylvania state income tax, they've been camped there so long, attempting the granddaddy of all Hail Marys. The numbers have inched slowly upward for McCain in the past couple of weeks in Pennsylvania, a state he must win if he's to have any chance at the White House.
But, a "dead heat?" Not by a long shot.
Barack Obama hangs on top in every respectable poll in the country, albeit within the margin for error in many of them. He's mobilized a small army of volunteers and an impressive number of paid staffers to get out the vote, promote the message and activate the electorate (also in a future post, we will be talking about the benefits of the much-sneered at job of "community organizer," and how experience in that gig might come in handy when running for high office).
Barack Obama is the leader at the moment. There are numerical possibilities that could allow John McCain to snatch defeat from the jaws for victory for the Democrats, and the party (above all others) knows the dangers of over-confidence (2004, anyone?).
But watching Lyndsay Graham and Rick Davis on the political shows this weekend, speaking through clenched teeth and forced "easy-peasy over-easy" grins, bluff their way through the party line that McCain was tied with Obama "where it mattered" (where? your mama's living room?) was a little like watching a waterboarding demonstration. Fred Thompson, God love him, didn't bother to really discuss the polls on Meet the Press. He resorted to simply covering the old GOP standard, "Vote for Republicans or you'll die." Barack Obama can't keep the country safe, he's too inexperienced, John McCain knows how to command an army in the eventuality that al Qaeda shows up with its vast army to attack us, 3 am phone calls, blah-dee-blah-dee....
"Ouch. Ouch. Stop it. Ouch. MOMMM!"
In all the round tables, though, the predictions were pretty unanimous across the board among the pundits. Obama over McCain. The only difference was the amount by which McCain would lose.
Still.... it's all about the ballot box, and tomorrow is the day that counts, because it's the last day to vote. So, vote. Or, don't. But, really, vote.
Links to sites with voter and poll information:
Can I Vote
Rock The Vote